Scoring Chance Totals: Games 13-24

All but five periods in the second quarter of the season were played without Erik Karlsson, and if you've been watching the games you don't need me to tell you the team is playing different. Shots against have risen, and the Senators have struggled to create offensive chances for long stretches. Nevertheless the team has stayed in games and picked up points in ones they've lost, so much so that I think at this point I'd be surprised to see them fall out of the playoffs. Still, the totals below are pretty ugly, hopefully it was just a blip, they have certainly looked better as a team with Michalek back in the lineup.

The chance totals from games 1-12 can be found here.

And this is the scoring chance definition I adhere to when tracking games:

"A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score."

The "home plate" scoring chance area can be seen below.

If you have any questions, or need clarification on anything just stop by in the comments.

Team totals by period:

PERIOD CF CA C% EV CF EV CA EV C% PP CF PP CA PK CF PK CA
1 37 59 38.1 28 46 37.3 6 1 3 12
2 61 59 50.8 41 53 43.6 18 0 2 6
3 54 58 48.2 43 35 55.1 12 0 0 23
4 6 13 31.6 4 6 40.0 0 0 0 4
Totals 158 189 45.5 116 140 45.3 36 1 5 45
(CF=chance for, CA=chance against, C%=chance percentage, EV CF=even-strength chance for, EV CA=even-strength chance against, 
EV C%=even-strength percentage, PP CF=power-play chance for, PP CA= power-play chance against, PK CF=penalty-kill chance for,
 PK CA=penalty-kill chance against)

- Ottawa was the 7th best possession team (by FENCLOSE) when Karlsson was injured, they now sit 12th by that mark. Games 1-12 they took 52.3% of the shots, games 13-24 down to 47.5% (outshot in 8/12).

- By scoring chances they look even worse taking just 45.5%, that's down from 52.1% over the first 12 games.

- Just in terms of raw numbers, Ottawa created 32 fewer offensive chances over the second quarter of the season, a 21% drop, while chances against only moved up a tick from 184 to 189.

- With such a decline in offensive chances you might expect the shots for to have fallen off as well, but that really didn't happen they averaged 32.1 from games 13-24, down from 33.6 from games 1-12. Their shots against moved much more, up to 35.5 through games 13-24, they only allowed 30.7 in games 1-12.

- The only period Ottawa outchanced the opposition was the second period, and only then by a slim margin. They have continued to get hammered in the first, which has been a constant all season. At even-strength they produced 37 fewer chances as compared to the first quarter of the seaon.

- Ottawa was shorthanded 7:52 more than their opponents in the second quarter of the season and came out -5 in special teams chances.

Forwards at even-strength:

PLAYER TOI CF CA C+/- CF/20 CA/20 C/20+/- C%
Turris 191:15 35 55 -21 3.7 5.9 -2.2 38.9
Michalek 26:39 9 8 1 6.8 6.0 0.8 52.9
Alfredsson 174:44 42 47 -5 4.8 5.4 -0.6 47.2
Regin 53:44 13 11 2 4.8 4.1 0.7 54.2
Greening 128:35 28 37 -9 4.4 5.8 -1.4 43.1
Smith 179:38 37 42 -5 4.1 4.7 -0.6 46.8
Stone 14:17 3 2 1 4.2 2.8 1.4 60.0
O'Brien 96:05 10 19 -9 2.1 4.0 -1.9 34.5
Condra 145:56 28 25 3 3.8 3.4 0.4 52.8
Daugavins 104:36 21 15 6 4.0 2.9 1.1 58.3
Da Costa 58:18 14 15 -1 4.8 5.1 -0.3 48.3
Neil 159:55 34 39 -5 4.3 4.9 -0.6 46.6
Silfverberg 179:20 29 44 -16 3.2 5.0 -1.8 39.7
Grant 33:28 5 3 2 3.0 1.8 1.2 62.5
Dziurzynski 121:30 20 34 -14 3.3 5.8 -2.5 37.0
Zibanejad 122:58 22 20 2 3.6 3.3 0.3 52.4
(CF=chance for, CA=chance against, C+/-=chance differential, CF/20=chance for per 20mins, CA/20=chance against per 20mins,
C/20 +/-=chance differential per 20mins, C%=chance percentage)
 
*NOTE* When I did this for games 1-12 the last column on each table was "CORSI%" just to show a measure a possession against the chance numbers. Unfortunately I don't have those numbers this time because the site that produces them on a game-by-game basis hasn't been updated this year. I'm hoping to add them to the post when I find a workaround. In the meantime here are Corsi percentages for the entire season to date.

- Ya, so Turris is getting crushed, and I"m not sure there is really any great remedy for that in the short-term. Spezza can't get back soon enough.

- Not a lot of positives here in general, but then again there isn't that much talent here so we shouldn't be all that surprised, especially when most are playing more minutes than is probably advised.

- I've liked Daugavins game all year, seems a useful player to have on your fourth line if you ask me.

- MacLean really didn't trust Grant for some reason, or he just wasn't prepared to play him out position, averaged 6:42 at even-strength in 5 games.

- Considering the competition faced and the number of defensive zone draws he's taken, Smith only coming out a -5 is pretty damn good (especially considering he was flanked by Dzuirzynski for much of this run).

Defence at even-strength:

PLAYER TOI CF CA C+/- CF/20 CA/20 C/20+/- C%
Methot 225:36 39 61 -22 3.5 5.4 -1.9 39.0
Phillips 195:19 50 40 10 5.1 4.1 1.0 55.6
Lundin 47:55 8 10 -3 3.3 4.6 -1.3 44.4
Wiercioch 154:35 31 39 -8 4.0 5.0 -1.0 44.3
Gonchar 213:43 38 53 -16 3.6 5.1 -1.5 41.8
Benoit 146:12 30 24 6 4.1 3.3 0.8 55.6
Gryba 190:16 31 51 -20 3.3 5.4 -2.1 37.8
Karlsson 26:08 8 6 2 6.1 4.6 1.5 57.1
(CF=chance, CA=chance against, C+/-=chance differential, CF/20=chance for per 20mins, CA/20=chance against per 20mins,
C/20 +/-=chance differential per 20mins, C%=chance percentage)
 
- Gryba is the anti-Karlsson. First 12 games Methot was on the ice for 59% of the scoring chances, this past 12 just 39%, first 12 games was +22, this past 12 he was -22. It's an unfair comparison but there it is, and that new top-pairing explains much of why Ottawa has struggled to produce offense 5on5.
 
- And while Gryba shoots it a ton, is a coveted right-shot, and is huge…I'm not entirely convinced he's a better defender than Boro.

- Maybe there was something to MacLean's "Phillips has been the most consistent" remark.

- Not sure this is going to hold, but despite seeing the shots against rise over the second quarter of the season by about 5 per game, the average chances against only ticked up slightly. So it seems they've done a pretty good job of keeping shots to the outside and limiting rebounds.

I'll be doing this again at the 36 game mark and season's end.

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