Scoring Chance Totals: Games 25-36

Ottawa went 7-3-2 over the third quarter of the season, and continue to look secure of a playoff spot despite dropping the last two in regulation. There was concern the poor stretch the Senators experienced after losing Karlsson was a sign of things to come, thankfully they've been better than that since. As it stands they're an average to below average possession team with elite goaltending. Curious to see how well they play down the stretch, and of course what kind of matchup they get in the first round (assuming they make it). Wouldn't be thrilled about playing Boston or Montreal…even though I"m sure it'd be great TV.

The chance totals from games 1-12 can be found here, and games 13-24 here.

And this is the scoring chance definition I adhere to when tracking games:

"A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score."

The "home plate" scoring chance area can be seen below.

If you have any questions, or need clarification on anything just stop by in the comments.

Team totals by period:

PERIOD CF CA C% EV CF EV CA EV C% PP CF PP CA PK CF PK CA
1 68 43 61.3 53 34 60.9 12 3 3 6
2 71 66 51.8 49 45 52.1 18 4 4 17
3 36 60 37.5 32 48 40.0 3 2 1 10
4 8 5 61.5 6 5 54.5 3 0 0 0
Totals 183 174 51.3 140 132 51.5 36 9 8 33
(CF=chance for, CA=chance against, C%=chance percentage, EV CF=even-strength chance for, EV CA=even-strength chance against, 
EV C%=even-strength percentage, PP CF=power-play chance for, PP CA= power-play chance against, PK CF=penalty-kill chance for,
 PK CA=penalty-kill chance against)

– As I wrote about last week, Ottawa's possession game has suffered minus Karlsson, so much so that they're now a sub-50 team by Fenwick Close. The Senators took 46.9% of the shot attempts in close game situations through games 25-36. Just for comparison in the first quarter of the season they took an elite 54.3%. If you're looking for a primer on the importance of possession, this post Eyes On The Prize published yesterday is excellent.

– By scoring chances the Senators look better than the shot count, taking 51.3% of the chances and 49.0% of the shots over the last twelve games. Some might say this is evidence the Senators have a talent for creating higher quality shots and keeping the opposition to the outside, but over the entire season to date the shot and scoring chance rates are nearly exact – 49.6% of the shots and 49.7% of the chances.

– Through the first half of the season Ottawa had a tendency to start slow before coming on late in the game. Which was reflected in the chance count; -31 in the first period after 24 games. But in the third quarter they were the inverse, +25 in chances in the first and -24 in the third.

– Ottawa was shorthanded 28:19 more than their opponents in the third quarter of the season but came out +2 in special teams chances. Never hurts to add a player like Conacher, and his knack for drawing penalties.

Forwards at even-strength:

PLAYER TOI CF CA C+/- CF/20 CA/20 C/20+/- C%
Turris 199:44 61 49 12 6.1 4.9 1.2 55.5
Michalek 33:06 11 8 3 6.6 4.8 0.8 57.9
Alfredsson 196:15 50 43 7 5.1 4.4 0.7 53.8
Regin 68:22 11 10 1 3.2 2.9 0.3 52.4
Greening 128:35 42 45 -3 4.8 5.2 -0.4 48.3
Smith 178:18 37 43 -6 4.2 4.8 -0.6 46.3
Stone 24:07 2 2 0 1.7 1.7 0.0 50.0
O'Brien 69:40 7 12 -5 2.0 3.4 -1.4 36.8
Condra 131:57 22 19 3 3.3 2.9 0.4 53.7
Daugavins 46:40 6 8 -2 2.6 3.4 -0.8 42.9
Neil 153:37 26 35 -9 3.4 4.6 -1.2 42.6
Kassian 50:42 6 7 -1 2.4 2.8 -0.4 46.2
Silfverberg 159:43 52 37 15 6.5 4.6 1.9 58.4
Dziurzynski 26:03 3 9 -6 2.3 6.9 -4.6 25.0
Hoffman 36:57 12 9 3 6.5 4.9 1.6 57.1
Latendresse 153:54 40 37 3 5.2 4.8 0.4 51.9
Zibanejad 145:25 29 24 5 4.0 3.3 0.7 54.7
(CF=chance for, CA=chance against, C+/-=chance differential, CF/20=chance for per 20mins, CA/20=chance against per 20mins,
C/20 +/-=chance differential per 20mins, C%=chance percentage)
 
– Just be wary of the sample size here, particularily for the guys playing fewer than 100 minues.

– Turris really struggled with the bump up to #1 center initially, but it looks like he's adjusted. Which is great to see, there isn't much optimism we'll be seeing Spezza anytime soon.

– Games 1-12 Silfverberg was -11 in chances at evens, games 13-24 he was -15, and games 25-36 he was +15. 

– Zibanejad is still being sheltered, but you have to be impressed with how defenisvely sound he's been this year at 19. His faceoffs are imrpoving too, was 43.4% through game 24, and the last 12 games was winning 48.8%. Center depth of Spezza, Turris, Zibanejad, Smith next year just might be the envy of the league.

– In his stint in Ottawa the Senators had 33.3% of the chances when Dziurzynski was on the ice at even-strength. MacLean did him no favours with zone-starts and opposition faced, but even for a checker that rate is bad.

– Early, early days but I've liked what Hoffman's shown. The speed and shot obviously, but he also protects the puck a lot better than I expected.

Defence at even-strength:

PLAYER TOI CF CA C+/- CF/20 CA/20 C/20+/- C%
Methot 205:56 40 43 -3 3.9 4.2 -0.3 48.2
Phillips 225:50 49 49 0 4.3 4.3 0.0 50.0
Lundin 44:21 9 11 -2 4.1 5.0 -0.9 45.0
Wiercioch 159:36 43 35 8 5.4 4.4 1.0 55.1
Gonchar 232:27 61 47 14 5.2 4.0 1.2 56.5
Benoit 137:11 45 29 16 6.6 4.2 2.4 60.8
Gryba 228:09 35 50 -15 3.1 4.4 -1.3 41.2
(CF=chance, CA=chance against, C+/-=chance differential, CF/20=chance for per 20mins, CA/20=chance against per 20mins,
C/20 +/-=chance differential per 20mins, C%=chance percentage)
 
– So Gonchar has been pretty good recently.
 
– It will be interesting to see where the organization goes with Benoit in the summer. He isn't playing hard minutes, but MacLean has leaned on him at times to play 19-20 minutes. Not to mention he seems to work very well with Phillips as @Brochenski made note of the other day.

– Important to remember that the minutes Gryba has played this year are much harder than what Cowen faced last season. On the other hand Gryba is 24 and Cowen was 20. Still he'd be exposed a lot less if he was playing as a 5/6 with some PK time.

I'll be doing this once more at season's end.

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